Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Become 'A Repeat of Brexit', Experts Caution

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."